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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 34

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 21-M.Crosby 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.15 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model