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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 25

Philadelphia Eagles 30 – New York Giants 25

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +1.85 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 25, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model