Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 70

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to NYG 16, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 22 for 6 yards (45-R.Lovato). FUMBLES (45-R.Lovato), and recovers at NYG 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.88 EP
53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 70, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model