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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 54

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 26-S.Barkley right guard to PHI 44 for 10 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.51 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 54, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model