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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 76

New England Patriots 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 17-B.Baringer punts 53 yards to DEN 23, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at NE 25 for 52 yards (17-B.Baringer).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.56 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP