4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 38

New England Patriots 23 – Denver Broncos 23

What Actually Happened

(:07) 37-C.Ryland 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.03 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model