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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 42

Denver Broncos 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to NE 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 27-M.Bryant to NE 15 for 5 yards (57-B.Niemann; 37-R.Moss).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.88 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model