Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 64

Denver Broncos 23 – New England Patriots 23

(1:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to NE 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-41-D.Sanders.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.93 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -2.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model