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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 81

New England Patriots 23 – Denver Broncos 23

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to DEN 39, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 81, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 38, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model