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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 61

Denver Broncos 7 – New England Patriots 23

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 3-R.Wilson up the middle to DEN 41 for 2 yards (8-J.Bentley).

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.17 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 61, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 20, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model