Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 65

New England Patriots 9 – Denver Broncos 7

(6:17) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to DEN 14, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 15 for 1 yard (53-C.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.53 EP
60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model