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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Denver Broncos
4th & 2 at the 2
Denver Broncos 0 – New England Patriots 0
What Actually Happened
(13:23) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard to NE 1 for 1 yard (33-A.Jennings).
The Three Options
GO
+3.59 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.30 EP
- 48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 2, worth +0.68 EP
KICK
+2.29 EP
- 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
- 1% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT
+0.16 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
