Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 69

Denver Broncos 7 – New England Patriots 3

(12:50) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to NE 30, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.33 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model