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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 6

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.12 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 6, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP