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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 53

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 5-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to LV 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-2-J.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.88 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model