Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 75

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(6:14) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 31, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 17-R.James to KC 31 for no gain (19-D.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.17 EP
52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model