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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 7

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(9:52) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 4-R.Rice (39-N.Hobbs).

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 7, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model