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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 17

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(:27) 2-D.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.44 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model