Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(3:55) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to KC 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 17-R.James to KC 19 for 10 yards (19-D.Turner; 22-A.Abdullah).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.99 EP
71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model