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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 70

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end to KC 37 for 7 yards (18-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.27 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model