Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 86

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to KC 36, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 17-R.James to KC 49 for 13 yards (50-J.Bobenmoyer). PENALTY on LV-36-C.Bolton, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at KC 49.

The Three Options

GO -3.56 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.65 EP
70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 86, worth -5.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model