Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 52

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 6-A.Cole punts 34 yards to KC 18, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds. PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at KC 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 52, worth -3.05 EP

KICK -1.95 EP

22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
78% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model