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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 18

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(:09) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +3.17 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model