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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 52

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(2:43) (Punt formation) 5-T.Townsend pass short left to 84-Ju.Watson ran ob at LV 41 for 11 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.92 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 52, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model