Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 75

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(13:02) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to KC 26, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 17-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model