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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left end to JAX 14 for 4 yards (23-F.Oluokun).

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.98 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 18, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 28, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model