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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 19 at the 19

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

What Actually Happened

(8:23) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass incomplete deep right to 0-C.Ridley (27-Z.McCollum).

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
What Happened
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.65 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP