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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4th & 2 at the 26
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6
What Actually Happened
(11:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Godwin.
The Three Options
GO
+2.08 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.39 EP
- 42% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -1.08 EP
KICK
+1.30 EP
- 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 16% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT
-0.20 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
