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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 51

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

What Actually Happened

(2:49) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles right end pushed ob at TB 49 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby).

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.71 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model