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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(9:26) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.20 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model