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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.35 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 13, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP