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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to IND 18, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.74 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 27, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP