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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 7

Atlanta Falcons 26 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-Y.Koo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 7, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model