Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 82

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Atlanta Falcons 26

(4:55) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete deep right to 2-D.Montgomery.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP

What Happened

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.39 EP
72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 82, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.36 EP