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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 17

Atlanta Falcons 23 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 6-Y.Koo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.10 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model