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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 23 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to IND 16, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.43 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP