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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 38

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Atlanta Falcons 23

What Actually Happened

(10:10) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short middle to 2-D.Montgomery (3-J.Bates, 34-C.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.73 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model