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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 54

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Atlanta Falcons 23

What Actually Happened

(12:17) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 83-K.Granson pushed ob at ATL 43 for 11 yards (3-J.Bates).

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.58 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model