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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 23

Atlanta Falcons 20 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.04 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 23, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 33, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model