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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 15

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 7-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.75 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 15, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model