Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 77

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

(2:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to ATL 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 20-D.Alford to ATL 25 for 3 yards (83-K.Granson).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 77, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model