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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 4

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 6-Y.Koo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 4, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP