4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 27

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(6:05) (Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson left tackle to IND 25 for 2 yards (52-S.Ebukam).

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.33 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 37, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model