Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

(9:45) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to ATL 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 20-D.Alford to ATL 14 for no gain (37-A.Speed).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.19 EP
66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model