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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 13-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to IND 22, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.17 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 24, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP