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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 43

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Miami Dolphins 19

What Actually Happened

(8:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to MIA 32 for 11 yards (25-X.Howard).

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.93 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model