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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 31

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(9:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to MIA 11 for 20 yards (29-B.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.86 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 41, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model