Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 82

Miami Dolphins 19 – Dallas Cowboys 13

(11:17) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to DAL 29, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 31 for 2 yards (22-E.Campbell; 41-C.Tindall).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 82, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model