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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 17

Miami Dolphins 16 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 7-J.Sanders 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.35 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 17, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model