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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 25

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 17-B.Aubrey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.07 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model